Is it the next gold rush or just a hype ? We all remember the movie The Big Short which tells the story of four investors who predicted the credit and housing bubble collapse in 2008. The first of these investors that predicted the burst of the housing bubble was Dr. Michael Burry, who is portrayed in The Big Short by Christian Bale. The last line of the movie, printed on a placard, is: “Michael Burry is focusing all of his trading on one commodity: Water.”
The copper bull market looks like it’s just warming up. It seems that we are in the early part of this boom and yet the media isn’t paying much attention to it. Copper is on the rise when the industry is booming. In short, copper is used in nearly every major industry of the world: transportation, engineering, machinery and equipment, electrical, building, automotive and computer.Thanks to significant demand worldwide, the base metal has outpaced all of its higher-profile precious peers by a significant margin over the last several weeks. In the short term we can observe price swings and the bears waiting for a major correction. However the long term picture -monthly view – paints a different picture telling us that this is only the beginning.
The financial sector is on the brink of collapse. The country that probably gave the English-speaking world the word for bank – medieval Italian merchants traded with each other on a bench known as banca – has a €360bn problem in its fragmented banking sector. This is the amount of non-performing loans, loans on which customer’s repayments have fallen behind.
A company’s 10 Q report is one of the most important tools an investor has when he tries to decide if and when a particular stock is a buy or a sell. The majority of investors is reading these reports yet most of them fail to properly understand the lingo used in these reports. What most investors miss or are not capable of doing is reading between the lines and interpreting the data correctly. To kick us off, we will examine key-phrases used in the 10 Q reports that can help us gauge the direction of the stock price.
The commercial net positions are a mirror of the large trader net positions. Most of the time commercial net positions mirror the funds trading patterns but there are some important exceptions to this rule. In rare circumstances the commercials need to cover their positions and this can lead to significant price moves. These price moves can be predicted in advance by using the correct set of tools.
The COT Report is the single most important report issued by the CFTC revealing internal market dynamics. It’s some kind of sentiment indicator. The data collected on a weekly basis contains market positions of the largest futures traders. Let’s see how we can use the report to accurately predict market turns.