The trend following model by Kaufman says that trading by the direction of the trend is a conservative approach to the markets. Kaufman’s Market Efficient Model states that longer trends are the most reliable but they respond rather slowly to changing market conditions. The main argument of the Market Efficiency Model is that an adaptive method must be applied to the markets for proper trend following.
The COT Report is the single most important report issued by the CFTC revealing internal market dynamics. It’s some kind of sentiment indicator. The data collected on a weekly basis contains market positions of the largest futures traders. Let’s see how we can use the report to accurately predict market turns.